Philippines
Cycles of displacements in Central Mindanao intensified in the early 21st century. President Estrada’s “All Out War” strategy in 2000 displaced over 930,000 individuals. Despite some progress in GPH-MILF talks, escalations of armed conflict led to renewed displacements, including 411,000 in 2003 and hundreds of thousands in 2008.
Survey on Conflict-Affected Communities and IDPs in Central and Western Mindanao
A number of studies have documented the experience and needs of conflict-affected communities and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). However, the factors determining vulnerability among the general population and influencing IDPs’ settlement decisions have been less researched. Public perceptions on the most important ways to move forward have also not been explored in depth.
To address this gap and provide a deeper evidence-base for operational planning, the World Bank and the World Food Programme commissioned a survey of 2,759 individuals in eight provinces and Cotabato City of Central and Western Mindanao in November and December 2010. The main sections of this report present the results of that survey in Central Mindanao, with key findings from Tawi-Tawi and Basilan in the annexes.
The report is organized in four sections: an overview of displacement in Central Mindanao, an exploration of the environment and resources available to households, respondents’ priorities for resettlement, recovery, and reconstruction, and an analysis of the factors influencing displaced households’ decisions.
Methodology
Survey Design and Sample
The study, a general population survey in Central Mindanao, employed a random sampling method proportionate to barangay population size to ensure statistically representative data. Five provinces and Cotabato City were selected. Enumerated Areas (EAs) were randomly chosen based on 2007 census data, regardless of displacement history or urban/rural status. Each EA had 12 households selected for interviews, totaling between 480 to 576 households per stratum. Sample size adjustments were made for design complexity and non-response.
Household selection followed a random geographic method, with one adult randomly chosen per household. Three attempts were made to contact each selected household or individual. If a household could not be contacted, the household was substituted in favor of the next eligible household.
Research Instruments and Measurements
The household survey underlying this report was crafted following a desk review and informant interviews, with a locally knowledgeable team. The questionnaire, covering 16 sections, combined open and close-ended questions. Enumerators obtained informed consent, explaining the study's purpose, confidentiality, and voluntary participation. Responses were self-identified, categorizing settlement status and reasons for displacement. Despite translations into local languages, not all were covered. Enumerator-translated interviews were conducted where pre-translations were unavailable.
Respondents clarified their settlement status and reasons for displacement. However, differing definitions among stakeholders might affect perceptions of displacement.
Data Collection and Analysis
The data wascollected over a six weeks period in November and December 2010 through 2,759 interviews. The data was subsequently entered manually in an access database and imported intoa statistical software for analysis(SPSSStatistical Package for the Social Sciences) for analysis. After a first quality check and flagging of outliers, a full review of the data entry was conducted to minimize data entry errors. Given the sampling methodology summarized above, adjustment weights were computed to provide results representative for the area under study.
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In addition to the slight differences in the size of the planned and actual sample, certain barangays identified for the survey had to be replaced with other barangays.Of the 231 barangays selected for this study, 23 (10%) had to be replaced due to insecurity and/or inaccessibility, most frequently in Maguindanao (8 replacements) and Lanao del Sur (6 replacements). In addition, 420 selected households and 502 individuals had to be replaced, most frequently because they could not be contacted at the time of the interview or because they refused to participate.
Study Limitations
All possible steps were taken to ensure that the results accurately represent the context and situation in the selected areas of mainland Mindanao. Some limitations to the study should nonetheless be noted, along with the mitigation measures taken to counter them:
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Data representing selected provinces only, not encompassing Mindanao's entire population.
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Some selected households and individuals were unavailable or refused participation, with replacement procedures mitigating potential bias.
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Non-targeting of specific populations like indigenous or occupation-based groups may result in underrepresentation.
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Reliance on self-reported data without fact-checking.
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Potential for recall bias addressed through enumerator training.
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Possible influence of expectations on responses clarified to respondents.
